French heatwave and Spanish imports reshape Europe’s corn market

A record-breaking heatwave in France and increased Spanish purchases of U.S. corn are significantly reshaping the European grain market. According to the French growers’ association AGPM, France’s corn harvest could fall to 9.5 mln tons, the lowest level in 26 years. At the same time, crop conditions have deteriorated sharply, with the share of corn rated good to excellent dropping from 84% to 76% in just one week.

The expected decline in French production has already pushed Euronext corn futures to contract highs. The market is increasingly pricing in tighter corn supplies across Europe, widening the price gap between European and U.S. markets.

An additional driver has been Spain’s growing purchases of U.S. corn. The shift toward American supplies has strengthened the price arbitrage between Paris and Chicago futures, as traders weigh tightening availability in France against ample supplies in the United States.

However, part of this effect was offset by the latest USDA quarterly grain stocks report. U.S. corn inventories came in below market expectations due to stronger domestic feed demand, supporting Chicago corn prices and slightly narrowing the spread between the Paris and Chicago markets.

Analysts expect the European corn market to remain driven by two key factors in the coming weeks: weather conditions in France and Spain’s import demand. Together, these factors will determine price trends and trade flows during the MY 2026/27.

Tags: prices, France, USA, corn