FAS USDA slashes Ukraine’s corn export forecast by 39%, but futures show little reaction

The representative of the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA) in Kyiv lowered the forecast for Ukraine’s corn exports in 2026/27 by 39% in its August report compared with the July estimate, from 23 mln tons to 14 mln tons. The sharp revision reflects the halt in exports from Black Sea ports following intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels near Ukrainian ports.

However, futures prices in Chicago and Paris showed little reaction to the downgrade. December corn futures in Chicago closed unchanged yesterday at $181.8/t (-2.2% for the week, unchanged for the month), amid relatively good crop conditions in the US and expectations of a higher US production forecast. Traders are awaiting the August USDA report, which is expected to raise the US corn production estimate as well as global ending stocks following upward revisions to 2025/26 crops in Brazil and Argentina, where harvesting is nearing completion.

November corn futures on Euronext in Paris rose 0.4% yesterday to €249.25/t, or $288/t (+4.4% for the month), but increasing corn supplies from South America are so far offsetting reduced shipments from Ukraine.

The halt in Ukraine’s seaborne grain exports triggered a sharp rise in futures prices in July while pushing domestic corn prices lower in Ukraine. Although demand for the new crop remains relatively strong, buyers are becoming increasingly doubtful that exports through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports will fully recover by the end of the year.

Export bid prices for feed corn in Ukraine remain at around $190/t DAP western border and UAH 8,500–9,000/t, or $175–180/t, delivered to Danube ports. These prices are being quoted for both old- and new-crop corn. However, if the issue of restoring seaborne exports is not resolved before the start of the corn harvest, domestic corn prices in Ukraine could decline further.

Tags: export, corn