Farmers outside Ukraine and Russia already benefiting from Black Sea port blockade — view from Poland

Restrictions on grain exports through Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea ports have already supported global prices, benefiting farmers in other countries. In Poland, milling wheat delivered to ports has risen by around PLN 100–120/t, according to Mirosław Marciniak, an independent grain market analyst at InfoGrain.

Before the disruptions to Black Sea logistics, wheat delivered to Polish ports was priced at PLN 880–900/t, while standard milling wheat can now be sold for around PLN 1,000/t. A similar trend is visible on the European futures market, where MATIF wheat has risen from €205–210/t to around €240/t for the December contract.

Marciniak said the market reaction remains much weaker than after the start of the full-scale war in 2022. Major grain importers in Africa and the Middle East currently have some stocks and relatively strong harvests, allowing them to delay purchases while waiting for greater clarity. However, prolonged disruptions to Black Sea supplies could increase market nervousness and the risk of further price gains.

For Ukraine, however, the situation means substantially higher logistics costs and reduced export capacity. According to the analyst, the country needs to ship around 4–5 mln tons of agricultural products per month, while alternative routes under current conditions could handle only around 1.5 mln tons per month — and only if water levels on the Danube improve.

Ukraine’s ability to redirect exports is further constrained by capacity limitations in neighboring countries. Romania is actively exporting its own harvest and using a significant share of its storage and port capacity, while low water levels are restricting Danube shipments and routes through Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are facing queues and logistical bottlenecks.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, grain, prices, Poland, wheat, war