Farmers could face fertilizer shortages next season due to Hormuz crisis

Farmers in import-dependent countries could face fertilizer shortages and high prices next season if trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist through the end of 2026. The conflict in the Persian Gulf has already disrupted supplies of energy, finished fertilizers and key raw materials used in fertilizer production.

The sharpest price spike came in the spring. According to the WTO, international urea prices rose from around $400/t to more than $850/t in April before falling back to $453/t in June. DAP prices increased from about $580/t to $770/t over the same period.

The risks extend beyond finished fertilizers. Natural gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, while sulfur is used in phosphate fertilizer manufacturing. Supply disruptions involving sulfur from the Gulf have reduced production and exports of phosphate fertilizers, further tightening global availability.

The biggest risks may emerge in late 2026 and during 2027, when farmers begin securing inputs for new planting campaigns. IFPRI experts warn that prolonged supply disruptions could force farms to reduce fertilizer application rates or switch to cheaper alternatives, creating risks for crop yields.

Import-dependent countries remain particularly vulnerable. Uganda, for example, imported about $54.75 mln worth of fertilizer in 2024, with nearly 40% coming from the Middle East and Gulf region. At the same time, experts do not currently expect a repeat of the 2022 food-price crisis, as global grain stocks remain relatively adequate.

Tags: prices, fertilizers, Hormuz