Extreme heat cuts more than €2 billion from Europe’s grain harvest

June’s extreme heatwave across Europe has significantly reduced grain production forecasts, causing more than €2 billion in losses for the agricultural sector. According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), grain production forecasts for the EU and the UK were cut by nearly 9 mln tons within four weeks after the heatwave, equivalent to around 5% of the estimated value of this year’s harvest.

Wheat and spring barley crops were hit hardest in France, Hungary, Germany, Austria, and Poland. Temperatures across Western Europe averaged 3°C above the 1991–2020 norm in June, while parts of France and Hungary recorded temperatures above 43°C and 40°C, respectively. The heat coincided with the critical grain-filling stage, reducing crop yields.

The largest downward revision was made for corn. Coceral lowered its EU and UK corn production forecast from 57.2 mln tons to 52.7 mln tons after hot weather disrupted pollination. As the EU is a net corn importer in poor harvest years, the production shortfall is expected to increase demand for imports, particularly from Ukraine and Brazil.

France suffered the largest economic losses, with grain production forecasts reduced by 4.1 mln tons, equivalent to nearly €891 million. Hungary’s losses are estimated at about €444 million, followed by Spain with €276 million and Germany with €233 million. Higher crop expectations in Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, and Finland partially offset the overall decline in European production.

The smaller grain harvest is expected to affect not only the European market but also global trade. Lower French production could reduce wheat exports to Africa, while tighter corn supplies and higher feed costs are likely to increase pressure on Europe’s livestock sector.

Tags: wheat, Germany, Hungary, Austria, Ukraine, corn, Romania, EU, France, Poland