Experts provided forecasts for the harvest of oilseeds in Ukraine in the new season
In 2022/23 MY, the global production of sunflower and rapeseed increased, which led to higher prices of oilseeds on the global market. Ukraine has also increased its oilseed cultivation area. Further growth in production and area is expected.
This was discussed during the international event EURO GRAIN HUB Exchange & Forum, held on April 26-28 in Bucharest. The event was organized by UkrAgroConsult (Ukraine), AgriPortal (Romania) and AgroPortal (Bulgaria).
In 2022/23 MY, the global production of sunflower and rapeseed increased. According to the USDA analyst Gretchen Kuck, Brazil, the USA, Canada and Australia became the largest producers of oilseeds and oilseed products over the last 10 years.
She noted that prices for oilseeds on the global market remain high. In 2022, when the full-scale invasion took place, the cost of oilseeds reached record levels. During the year, prices fell, but still remain high due to production costs and inflation.
In the first half of this MY, Ukraine exported a record amount of sunflower – 1.54 mln tons. The main importers were Bulgaria and Romania.
According to Yulia Garkavenko, Director of Market Analysis Department at Ukragroconsult, Bulgaria is now showing incredible exports of oil and meal using Ukrainian raw materials. She added that the longer the war lasts, the more likely it is that Romania will also start changing its processing industry.
European colleagues called the assumptions about the future oilseed harvest in Ukraine optimistic.
Thus, the area under oilseeds in Ukraine is likely to increase by 112% compared to last year. The largest increase is expected for soybeans – by 136%, sunflower areas may grow by 108% compared to last year.
Leading analyst of Ukragroconsult Maryna Marynych estimated the sunflower production in Ukraine in 2023 at 13.3 mln tons. In 2022, the crop was harvested at 11 mln tons. In general, the company estimates the future oilseed harvest at 21.4 mln tons.
“Regarding the quality of grain, I am sure that all large holdings are 100% provided with high-quality seeds. As for small and medium-sized companies, I can’t be 100% sure, but I know the mentality of Ukrainian farmers: if they have tried high-quality seeds, it will be very difficult to go back to worse options. So, most likely, in the fall we will see that the entire harvest will be of good quality,” said Maryna Marynych.
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