USDA raises Ukraine wheat crop forecast to 26 mln tons but cuts exports

In its September WASDE report released on September 11, 2026, USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in 2026/27 by 0.6 mln tons to 26 mln tons, up from 25.4 mln tons in the August estimate. The revision reflects record yields as the harvest nears completion.

At the same time, the forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports was cut by 1 mln tons to 12.5 mln tons, compared with 13.5 mln tons a month earlier. USDA attributed the revision to weak August shipments and logistics disruptions in the Black Sea region amid the war.

With a larger crop and lower exports, Ukraine’s projected ending wheat stocks were raised to 6.1 mln tons from 4.8 mln tons in August. As a result, a larger share of additional supply may remain on the domestic market.

USDA raised global wheat supplies by 3.5 mln tons to 1.103 bln tons. The largest production increases were made for Australia, to 31 mln tons, and Canada, to 36 mln tons. Kazakhstan’s crop forecast, meanwhile, was cut by 1 mln tons to 15 mln tons.

For Russia, USDA lowered the wheat crop forecast by 0.5 mln tons to 88 mln tons and cut exports by 3 mln tons to 43 mln tons. At the same time, projected ending stocks were increased by 2.5 mln tons to 16.09 mln tons. Overall, the global wheat trade forecast was reduced by 0.9 mln tons to 211.8 mln tons, while ending stocks were raised by 3 mln tons to 276.3 mln tons.

For the US, USDA left wheat production unchanged at 41.66 mln tons, exports at 21.09 mln tons and ending stocks at 19.51 mln tons. China’s production forecast was also unchanged at 141 mln tons, with imports at 6 mln tons and ending stocks at 120.2 mln tons.

Tags: export, Black Sea region, wheat, USA, crop forecast, wheat crop, Ukraine, China, Kazakhstan, USDA