USDA cuts US corn crop forecast and global ending stocks

In its WASDE report released on September 11, 2026, USDA lowered its forecast for global corn production in 2026/27 to 1.291 bln tons from 1.299 bln tons in August. Global ending stocks were cut by 2.6 mln tons to 272.1 mln tons.

For the US, the corn crop forecast was reduced to 401.33 mln tons from 406.75 mln tons a month earlier. Exports were left unchanged at 83.19 mln tons, while ending stocks were cut to 39.79 mln tons. USDA raised the season-average farm price by $0.30 to $4.80 per bushel.

For Ukraine, USDA left the corn production forecast unchanged at 31.8 mln tons and exports at 22 mln tons. At the same time, ending stocks were raised to 5.46 mln tons from 4.86 mln tons in August. For Russia, production was cut to 16.5 mln tons from 17.2 mln tons, while exports were lowered to 3.7 mln tons from 3.8 mln tons.

For Argentina, the production and export forecasts were unchanged at 55 mln tons and 38 mln tons, respectively. Brazil’s production forecast was also maintained at 139 mln tons, while exports were cut by 1 mln tons to 43 mln tons due to higher domestic use, including for ethanol production.

For South Africa, USDA left production unchanged at 16.5 mln tons and exports at 2.2 mln tons. China’s estimates were also unchanged, with production forecast at 307 mln tons, imports at 5 mln tons and ending stocks at 165.13 mln tons.

Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine, Russia, China, corn, USDA, export, Brazil, USA, South Africa, Argentina