Excess precipitation in Europe and precipitation deficits in the Black Sea region remain the main weather factors affecting prices
Traders’ focus remains on the weather in Russia, where dry conditions persist in the southwest, reducing wheat crop potential and causing sharp price increases over the past two months.
Hot and dry conditions continue to reduce winter wheat, corn and sunflower crop potential in the Black Sea region, especially in southern Russia and southeastern Ukraine. During the week, a precipitation front moved from Romania into northwestern Ukraine, bringing rain and thunderstorms, but parts of central and eastern Ukraine received no precipitation.
In most winter wheat growing areas in the Russian Federation and eastern Ukraine, unfavorably hot and dry weather will remain next week. The Russian Hydrometeorological Center predicts rainfall deficits and drought in southern Russia in June, but improved soil moisture and conditions for crop development in the European part.
Weather in Western Siberia is favorable for spring wheat sowing, and agrometeorological conditions are assessed as satisfactory and good for growth and formation of crop yields. Sowing of spring wheat has already been accomplished on 90% of the forecasted areas.
In the U.S., favorable conditions continue and seeding is almost complete, crop development is progressing quite well.
One or two cyclones are moving across the Midwest and Plains of the U.S. each week, bringing heavy precipitation that is somewhat holding back planting, but generally favorable for early crop development, especially for soybeans and corn. Soil moisture remains high in most areas and temperatures are mostly at or below normal for early growth.
Similar conditions are forecast for next week with occasional showers and thunderstorms and temperatures in the normal range.
The Canadian Prairies also continue to receive heavy precipitation, which continues to hold back spring crops, but has completely eliminated the drought conditions that have been building since early spring in some areas.
More areas are likely to experience these conditions.
Next week, drier conditions are forecast, but with scattered showers toward the end of the week, which will favor the completion of planting and the development of crops in mostly good conditions.
In central Brazil, dry conditions with high temperatures persist, which is unfavorable for sowing the second crop of safrinha corn and accelerates its harvest, which is already completed in 8% of the area.
Dry conditions are also established in Argentina, which is favorable for the harvest of corn and soybeans, but the lack of precipitation is unfavorable for the development of winter wheat crops. Small scattered showers and lower temperatures are forecast for next week, which will slightly improve conditions for wheat.
Another cyclone will pass through Europe from west to east from northern Spain to western Ukraine over the next few days and scattered rains will continue into next week. Excessive rainfall with low temperatures in western Europe continues to slow crop development and increase the development of crop diseases, reducing the yield potential of spring crops.
As forecasters predicted, rainfall is increasing in Australia, favoring increased winter wheat and barley sowing and canola crop development. Several cyclones are also forecast for next week with rainfall in all growing regions. According to forecasters, the transition to La Niña continues to develop, the probability of precipitation should continue to increase over the next few months, which will eventually be very favorable for crop establishment and development.
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