European wheat prices fell by 13% in two weeks, and American wheat prices also remain very low

World wheat prices are under pressure from a significant supply of Black Sea wheat, primarily from Russia, data on increased exports from the Russian Federation in March, the extension of the grain corridor from Ukraine, and improved weather in the US and the EU. The biggest impact is on European wheat prices, which fell 13% in the two weeks following the bearish WASDE report, and 15% in the month. At the same time, American wheat futures stabilized after falling, and spring and hard winter wheat even increased in price over the past 2 weeks.

Exports of wheat from the EU increased by 58% to 329,000 tons during the week, and totaled 22.1 million tons or 60% of the USDA forecast for 8.5 months of the season. Understanding that it is unlikely to be possible to export the projected 30 million tons increases the pressure on the quotation of European wheat, which remains the most expensive on the market. Perhaps a sharp drop in prices will strengthen the demand for European grain.

Yesterday wheat quotes fell:

• by 2.6% or $6.43/t to $251.1/t – May futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.1% or $3.49/t to $301.4/t – HRW hard winter wheat futures in Kansas City,
• by 0.7% or $2.11/t to $310.8/t – May futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 0.8% or $2.5/t to $286/t – May futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.8% or €4.5/t to €253.5/t or $273/t – May wheat futures on the Paris Euronext.

The decision to extend the grain agreement did not affect quotations, as Ukraine has almost exhausted its export potential, having shipped 12.3 million tons of wheat from the USDA’s forecast of 13.5 million tons.

Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine remain at a low level of $200-210/t against the background of low export demand and delays in the actions of ships to ports.

According to the estimates of the StoneX agency, the Russian Federation will increase grain exports in March by 37% compared to February, from 3.5 to 4.8 million tons, in particular wheat – from 2.9 to 4.2 million tons. According to Rosstat, wheat stocks at On March 1, they amounted to 17.3 million tons, which is 1.6 times higher than last year’s figure.

In the near future, news about the harvest in India and production forecasts for Ukraine and the Russian Federation may support world wheat prices.

The Indian Federation of Flour Mills reports that the country plans to keep in place the ban on wheat exports introduced last year against the background of high domestic prices and low state wheat stocks, which have decreased by 48% over the year to a six-year low of 17.2 million tons.

The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine predicts a decrease in the wheat harvest in 2023 to 16.6 million tons (21 million tons in 2022 and 31 million tons in 2021) as a result of the reduction of sowing areas and unfavorable weather in autumn.

According to UkrAgroConsult’s forecast, in 2023/24, the Russian Federation will reduce grain production by 25% to 82.6 million tons (102 million tons in 2022 and 75.2 million tons in 2021) due to a decrease in the area of winter wheat sowing and the loss of a part of winter crops due to frost