EU pork production to rise despite expected 32% drop in exports to China

The European Commission has revised its 2026 pork production forecast for the EU upwards. While a 1% decline was expected in the spring, production is now projected to increase by 0.5% year-on-year to 22.18 mln tons. The main reason for the revision was higher-than-expected pig slaughter volumes in the first half of the year. The Commission still anticipates a year-on-year decline in slaughter during the second half of 2026, but the decrease is expected to be less pronounced than previously forecast.

Meanwhile, the outlook for EU pork exports remains unfavorable. According to the European Commission, total exports are projected to decline by 0.5% in 2026 to less than 2.97 mln tons. The sharpest decrease is expected in shipments to China, which could fall by 32%. Higher exports to other destinations are expected to only partially offset losses in the Chinese market, intensifying competition among European producers.

Domestic pork consumption in the EU is also expected to remain relatively stable, with little growth. Average per capita consumption is forecast at 33.2 kg in 2026, compared with 33 kg in 2025. Meanwhile, the EU’s pork self-sufficiency rate is projected at approximately 115.2%, down slightly from 115.4% last year. As a result, production continues to exceed domestic requirements, leaving the sector heavily dependent on export markets to absorb surplus supplies.

Higher production amid limited demand and declining exports could increase pork oversupply in Europe and put additional pressure on producer prices. Competition from the United States and Brazil, where producers benefit from lower production costs, is adding to the challenges facing the sector. African swine fever also remains a significant risk for European pig farming, continuing to affect the industry in several EU countries, including Germany and Poland.

The revised pork production outlook is also relevant to the European feed market, as pig farming remains a major consumer of corn, barley and soybean meal. Sustained production volumes could support demand for feed ingredients, although weak profitability in the pig sector and price pressure may limit further herd expansion. Overall, the European pork market is approaching the end of 2026 with higher-than-expected supplies and weaker export prospects.

Tags: pork, EU