EU boosts olive oil exports as lower prices drive demand

European Union olive oil exports are expected to reach 794,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, up 6% from the previous year. According to the European Commission, lower prices are the main factor supporting stronger global demand and higher export volumes.

The Commission’s July Short-term Outlook indicates that declining prices are already reshaping trade flows. Shipments to China doubled through March compared with the same period a year earlier, while exports to Brazil, the UK and Japan also increased. In contrast, exports to the United States declined, although the country remains the world’s largest olive oil importer.

Analysts attribute the weaker US shipments to the previous season, when a poor harvest in Italy disrupted traditional supply flows. As a result, American buyers increasingly sourced olive oil from more competitive non-EU suppliers, particularly Tunisia.

Despite these shifts in trade, global olive oil consumption remains at a historically high level. According to the International Olive Council, worldwide consumption reached 3.2 mln tons in the 2024/25 season, slightly above the five-year average. Compared with the 1990s, global demand has nearly doubled.

At the same time, lower prices are putting additional pressure on producers, as labour, energy, fertiliser, financing, logistics and compliance costs remain elevated. The impact is particularly significant for smaller farms and traditional olive growers, although the combination of lower prices and solid global demand could mark the beginning of a recovery in EU olive oil exports.