Ethiopian coffee production forecast to rise, Colombia to decline

The Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) forecasts Ethiopian coffee production to increase to 11.6 million 60-kilogram bags in 2025–26.

The increase is due to favorable weather, increased productivity from regeneration of older trees, and the use of higher-quality materials, including more productive seedlings.

Exports are expected to increase to 7.8 million bags, driven by stronger prices and reforms that have increased direct access for producers and exporters to international markets.

Economic reforms, including the adoption of a market-based exchange rate, are making Ethiopian coffee more competitive in foreign markets and increasing incomes for local farmers, according to a report from the FAS office in Addis Ababa.

Production Drop in Colombia

Meanwhile, in Colombia, washed Arabica production in May fell by 27% compared to the same month last year, to 819 thousand bags. This was reported by Reuters with reference to the National Federation of Coffee Growers.

The reasons for the reduction were not specified, but heavy rains recently could have worsened the condition of coffee trees.

Colombia is the leading supplier of washed Arabica to the world market. In 2024, the country produced just under 14 million and exported about 12.3 million bags, according to the federation.

Exports in May amounted to 910 thousand bags against 933 thousand in the same month last year.

Tags: Ethiopia, crop forecast, Colombia