Energy shock could trigger rise in prices of essential goods

The global economy is facing growing risks amid a sharp increase in energy prices caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, financial markets have shown relative resilience, raising concerns among analysts. Experts warn that investors may be underestimating the potential impact of the ongoing energy shock.

Since the beginning of the conflict, oil prices have surged by more than 50%. Brent crude has risen above $100 per barrel, while US benchmark WTI is trading even higher. This rapid increase is already putting pressure on key sectors, including transportation, industry, and consumer goods production.

Analysts note that higher energy costs are inevitably feeding into overall production expenses. Rising costs for logistics, fuel, and raw materials are gradually being passed on to consumers, creating the conditions for a new wave of inflation across many economies.

Another major risk factor is the stability of global energy supply routes. Particular attention is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for oil shipments. Any prolonged disruption in this route could significantly worsen supply shortages in global markets.

In this context, even potential increases in oil production by major exporters are unlikely to fully offset supply losses. As a result, markets may remain tight, keeping energy prices elevated for an extended period.

Experts warn that sustained high costs and resource constraints could lead to rising prices for essential goods, including food. If these trends persist, they may become a key driver of slower global economic growth and increase the risk of a broader recession.