EBRD forecasts 50–60% drop in Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports in H2 2026

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts that Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports could fall by 50–60% in the second half of 2026 due to disruptions at Black Sea ports and damage to transport infrastructure.

According to the EBRD, alternative routes via the Danube and the EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes cannot fully compensate for the loss of deep-sea port capacity. Their throughput is also being constrained by low water levels on the Danube and damage to railway infrastructure.

Lower exports could lead to a significant build-up of unsold grain and oilseed stocks in Ukraine. This, in turn, would increase demand for storage capacity and put additional pressure on agricultural companies’ liquidity and working capital.

The EBRD also warns that prolonged disruptions to Ukrainian exports could affect global food markets. According to the Bank, wheat prices have risen by more than a third since February 2026 to around $7.50 per bushel.

Against the backdrop of worsening export logistics, the EBRD also cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 1.5% from 2.2% projected in June. The 2027 forecast was lowered to 2.5%, with the outlook depending largely on the restoration of key export routes and continued external financial support.

Tags: EBRD, Ukraine, export, grain, oilseeds