Restrictions on Ukrainian apple concentrate imports could raise costs for EU processors

Ukraine has an annual EU duty-free quota of 30 thsd tons for apple juice, while concentrated apple juice shipped above the quota is subject to a 30% duty. According to EastFruit, such restrictions could increase costs for European processors that use Ukrainian concentrate as a raw material.

In 2024, Ukraine exported around 108.7 thsd tons of apple juice worth about $218 mln, including approximately 78.2 thsd tons supplied to the EU. Poland imported 25.7 thsd tons from Ukraine and remains one of the key centers for processing, blending and re-exporting apple concentrate.

Poland itself exported nearly 480 thsd tons of related products worth $574 mln. Ukrainian concentrate therefore serves not only as a competing product but also as feedstock for Polish processors that add value through processing, logistics and re-exports.

EastFruit estimates that if duty-free imports from Ukraine increased from the current 30 thsd tons to 60–80 thsd tons, an additional 30–50 thsd tons could enter the EU market. At a concentrate price of €1,800–2,000/t, a 30% duty on such volumes would represent roughly €16–30 mln in tariff costs.

These estimates are scenario calculations rather than a forecast of actual losses. The real impact will depend on global prices, processing margins, alternative suppliers and export destinations for Ukrainian products. If access to the EU remains restricted, Ukrainian concentrate could be redirected to the US, UK, Asia or the Middle East, increasing competition for European exporters in global markets.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, imports, apples, apple concentrate