Drought to cut Hungary’s wheat harvest by nearly 1 mln tons

Hungary’s harvest of early grains is progressing, but this year’s wheat crop is expected to be below average due to spring frosts and prolonged drought. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, winter wheat harvesting was nearly 60% complete by early July, with the campaign expected to finish next week.

State Secretary for Agriculture János István Molnár said average wheat yields currently stand at around 4 t/ha, although there are significant regional differences. Despite the smaller harvest, Hungary is expected to produce enough wheat to meet domestic demand while maintaining export supplies.

Tamás Petőházi, president of the National Association of Grain Growers, estimated that Hungary’s wheat harvest will be nearly 1 mln tons smaller than last year because of insufficient rainfall. About 1.1 mln tons will be used by the milling industry, while roughly 300 thsd tons each will be required for industrial processing and seed production. The feed sector is expected to consume another 1.3–1.4 mln tons.

Climate change is also reshaping cropping patterns in Hungary. According to Petőházi, declining corn production is encouraging livestock producers to increase the use of feed wheat and other winter cereals, while farmers are increasingly testing new crop varieties and cultivation technologies adapted to drier conditions.

Despite sufficient grain supplies, farmgate prices remain below recent years’ levels. Wheat is currently trading at around 60,000 forints/t (about €167/t), while the stronger forint has reduced farmers’ revenues from barley sales. Buyer demand also remains relatively weak.

The Ministry of Agriculture says climate change requires a significant restructuring of crop production. Authorities plan to promote water conservation technologies, mulching, and other climate adaptation practices while encouraging more domestic grain processing instead of exporting raw agricultural commodities. Market participants also note that an expected grain production shortfall in South America could provide additional support to global grain prices.

Tags: prices, wheat, drought, Hungary, crop forecast, corn, grain