Despite adverse weather conditions in the South and other regions of Brazil, soybean crop potential is revised upward

Safras & Mercado revised its projections for the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop upward, highlighting a very favorable outlook in the central region of the country. The largely positive weather conditions have boosted yield expectations, especially in Mato Grosso, where production potential could reach around 47.7 mln tons, supported by the high quality of crops. Other regions, such as MATOPIBA (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia), have also shown significant progress, benefiting from favorable weather conditions.

On the other hand, some areas are facing challenges. In the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, the lack of rain and high temperatures have negatively impacted yield. Although climate maps indicate a possible return of rain between January 18 and 20, the current adverse conditions have already resulted in negative adjustments, with the risk of further losses if rainfall is not confirmed.

Rio Grande do Sul is also a cause for concern, as the prolonged drought has forced a significant reduction in yield expectations. The losses already consolidated reinforce the possibility of additional negative revisions, if the weather pattern does not change.

Initially, Safras’ projections pointed to a total crop of 171.7 mln tons, overcoming the early planting delays due to the favorable weather conditions from October onward. The expected average yield in Mato Grosso was 58 bags per hectare, while in Mato Grosso do Sul it was estimated at 60 bags (3,600 kg per hectare). In Rio Grande do Sul, the expectation was 57 bags per hectare, with a total projected production of 23.378 mln tons.

With the most recent adjustments, yield in Mato Grosso do Sul was revised to 57.5 bags per hectare due to adverse weather conditions at a critical point of the crop and may suffer new cuts if the situation persists. In Rio Grande do Sul, updated figures indicate an average of 54.1 bags (3,250 kg per hectare), with production revised to 22.2 mln tons, a reduction of more than 1 mln tons compared to the initial estimate.

In the case of Mato Grosso, initially projected to produce 43.5 mln tons, with a yield of 58 bags per hectare, current conditions are exceptionally favorable. Yield was adjusted to 63.3 bags (3,800 kg per hectare), resulting in an expected crop of 47.716 mln tons.

Despite negative adjustments in some regions, Brazil may achieve a record crop of 173.7 mln tons in 2025, marking a historic feat for soybean cultivation in the country. However, this exceptional production should exert strong pressure on prices, both on the commodities exchange and the premiums paid at ports, due to the need for outflow. Furthermore, logistics will face significant challenges, with a likely increase in freight costs, exacerbating the difficulties of the sector.

Short-term climate maps indicate continued rainfall, especially in the center-north of the country, between January 12 and 18, covering states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, and the Northeast region over the week. The Southeast should also register good rainfall conditions. However, in the South, the weather tends to remain drier until the rain returns at the end of the week. Between January 19 and 25, rainfall should cover more regions, especially the Midwest, comprising the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás, besides the entire Northeast and Southeast regions. In the South, more significant volumes of precipitation are expected from January 20 onward.

Tags: drought, projections, crop, yield, weather conditions, Brazil, rainfall, soybeans, Production