Declining wheat stock quotes again put pressure on prices in Ukraine

The increase in the forecast for world wheat stocks in the USDA’s April report increased the pressure on stock quotes last week, and the continuation of negotiations between the US and Iran, although unsuccessful so far, gave hope for the restoration of shipping in the Persian Gulf and became an additional factor of pressure on prices.

Wheat prices on US and Paris exchanges have been falling by 1-3% for the second week in a row, also contributed by increased rainfall in arid regions of the US.

US stock market quotes fell by 2-2.1% yesterday, despite the USDA’s crop condition report, according to which the number of crops in good or excellent condition in the US decreased by 1% to 34% (47% last year). At the same time, spring wheat in the US was sown at 6% of the planned area, which is slightly lower than the 5-year average (7%).

During the week, May wheat futures fell:

• by 2.2% to $218.74/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 0.8% to $221.7/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 3.2% to $229.8/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 3.4% to €195.75/t or $233.5/t – for wheat on Euronext in Paris.

According to the USDA’s FGIS, during April 3-9, wheat exports from the United States decreased by 6.44% compared to the previous week to 320,797 thousand tons, which is 47.62% lower than the same period last year. Of these, 113,955 thousand tons were shipped to Mexico, 52,812 thousand tons to the Philippines, and 55,246 thousand tons to Taiwan.

In total, the US exported 21.03 million tonnes of wheat in the MY 2025/26 (as of April 9), which is 14.6% higher than last year’s pace. However, the export forecast for this season has been increased by 2 million tonnes to 24.5 million tonnes.

In Ukraine, wheat export rates are lower than last year. Since the beginning of the season, 10 million tons have been exported (13.4 million tons last year), so the USDA has again lowered the export forecast for Ukraine by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons compared to 15.8 million tons in the previous season.

Over the past week, export purchase prices for food wheat in Ukraine decreased by 50-100 UAH/t to 10,800-10,900 UAH/t or $218-222/t, and for feed wheat – to 10,550-10,650 UAH/t or $214-216/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. The strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank market is putting additional pressure on hryvnia prices.

Large stocks of old wheat crops are also putting pressure on prices, but forecasts of reduced wheat harvests in the US and EU keep new crop prices higher than old ones. Therefore, deteriorating crop conditions and adverse weather conditions will significantly affect prices in the coming months.