Crude oil rally supports vegetable oil prices

Sharp price swings continue in the crude oil market, but vegetable oil markets have shown only a limited response to the 15% increase in crude oil prices over the past week, as global oilseed balances have improved and supplies continue to expand.

September Brent crude oil futures surged 15% over the past seven days to $85/barrel (+18% over two weeks) after the ceasefire between Iran and the United States collapsed, leading to renewed conflict in the Middle East, including Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on neighboring countries.

Soybean oil prices reacted the most. December soybean oil futures on the CBOT climbed 5.2% during the week to $1,557/t (+2.2% over the month). However, soybean prices in Chicago remained stable, suggesting that soybean oil prices could retreat in the near term.

Spot soybean oil prices in Brazil followed the gains in Chicago, increasing by $20-30/t during the week to $1,190-1,200/t FOB. Meanwhile, August soybean oil futures on the Dalian Exchange (China) rose by $10-15/t to $1,235-1,245/t.

August palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia traded around 4,574 ringgit/t ($1,120/t) throughout the week, as slower exports in June pushed inventories to a four-month high. Surprisingly, palm oil prices, which previously showed a strong correlation with crude oil prices, have recently remained stable and largely ignored speculative movements in the energy market.

Seasonally tighter supplies from the Black Sea region, combined with intensified attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, continue to support sunflower oil prices in India. Demand prices increased by $5-10/t over the week to $1,445-1,450/t CIF Mumbai, while offer prices for Russian sunflower oil rose by $30-40/t to $1,350-1,380/t FOB.

In June, Russia increased sunflower oil exports to India and Turkey, its two largest buyers, by 189% compared to May, reaching 0.3 mln tons. This was 415% higher than in June 2025 and marked the highest monthly export volume since November 2024.

In Ukraine, a vegetable oil terminal operated by Kernel was hit during shelling this week, damaging approximately 9 thsd tons of sunflower oil and further reducing the already limited export supply. Bid prices for sunflower oil delivered to Black Sea ports increased by $10-20/t during the week to $1,345-1,350/t, while only new-crop sunflower oil is currently being offered at around $1,300/t FOB.

The higher forecast for the global sunflower harvest in the new season has not yet affected new-crop prices. Only a stabilization in crude oil prices and confirmation of a strong sunflower harvest are likely to trigger a significant price correction this autumn.

Higher crude oil prices, together with rising rapeseed futures in Paris, pushed EU rapeseed oil prices up by $30-40/t during the week to $1,535/t FOB Netherlands. However, bid prices for Ukrainian rapeseed oil delivered to the western border remain unchanged at €1,070/t, or about $1,220/t DAP.

We expect crude oil prices to stabilize and rapeseed oil supplies to increase, which should calm the market. Importers are also likely to reduce purchasing activity as they wait for lower prices for the new crop.

Tags: sunflower oil, soybean oil, prices, palm oil, edible oils