Corn shortages in India threaten to drive up poultry feed prices

Concerns are growing in India over a potential decline in corn production during the upcoming winter season due to unfavorable weather conditions. Rainfall deficits in key corn-growing regions, linked to the effects of El Niño, could reduce the harvest and push grain prices higher. The poultry industry faces particularly significant risks, as corn is a major ingredient in compound feed.

According to Ricky Thaper, Joint Secretary of the Poultry Federation of India, insufficient rainfall during critical stages of crop development has already affected corn fields in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Against this backdrop, feed corn prices rose from $0.26/kg in April to $0.29–0.30/kg in October. Industry representatives warn that prices could climb above $0.31/kg.

Additional pressure on the market comes from growing demand for corn from bioethanol producers. Corn currently accounts for around 37% of ethanol production in India, intensifying competition for feedstock among the energy sector, poultry producers and the starch industry. Meanwhile, steady demand from buyers in southern India continues to support high prices, while farmers remain reluctant to sell their grain stocks.

For Indian poultry producers, rising corn prices mean higher production costs for poultry meat and eggs. Further increases in compound feed costs could add financial pressure on producers, particularly smaller farms with limited capacity to purchase feed ingredients in large volumes. Competition from the biofuel industry is making it increasingly difficult for the sector to secure affordable feed grain.

If El Niño conditions persist into early 2027, domestic corn supplies in India could tighten further, putting additional upward pressure on prices. Carryover stocks may partially offset a potential shortage, but poultry industry representatives believe they may be insufficient to fully meet market demand. Further developments will depend on weather conditions, the size of the new harvest and demand for corn from ethanol producers.

Tags: corn, India, compound feed, crop forecast, livestock sector