Corn quotes are falling, but corn prices have risen again in Ukraine

Favorable weather conditions for corn planting in the US and improving weather in the EU and Ukraine continue to put pressure on corn stock quotes, which importers benefit from.

At the same time, in Ukraine, export purchase prices for corn increased by $5-6/t per week to $235-240/t or UAH 10,900-11,200/t, but for limited volumes with the condition of quick delivery, as traders are buying additional batches for export in July.

Heavy rainfall that has covered Ukraine is improving the condition of corn and soybean crops and limiting the growth of forward corn prices, which remain at $206-210/t for delivery in October.

November corn futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris fell 2.8% to €194.5/t or $224/t over the week, despite a sharp decline in the EU production forecast.

The European Commission has lowered its forecast for corn production in the European Union in the 2025/2026 MY from 64.6 million tons to 60.1 million tons (compared to 59.3 million tons last season), while the USDA estimates it at 60 million tons.

The signing of an agreement between the EU and the US, which provides for duty-free import of American agricultural products into the EU, creates strong pressure on prices in the EU, which in turn will increase competition with corn from Ukraine in the new season.

As of July 27, 73% of the US corn crop was in good or excellent condition (68% a year ago), which is increasing pressure on prices and allowing importers to actively buy cheap American corn.

September corn futures on the CBOT yesterday fell by 1.2% to $153.1/t (–5.4% month-on-month), and December futures fell by 0.7% to $161.8/t (–3.4%), despite a 6% increase in oil prices.

Leading South Korean animal feed producer FLC purchased about 132,000 tons of feed corn (twice as much as planned) in an international tender on July 29 for delivery by November 20, 2025 at a price of $234.05/ton C&F and $233.8/ton C&F (plus $1-1.25/ton for additional unloading at the port), which is significantly lower than a week ago, when other importers bought corn at $234.83-235.22/ton C&F.

Brazil has already threshed 68% of its second crop of corn, so it is increasing export shipments. ANEC increased its forecast for corn exports from Brazil in July to 4.18 million tons, which will significantly exceed the figure for July last year (3.55 million tons).