Corn prices in Ukraine could fall by $50–70 per ton due to port blockade

Ukrainian corn producers are expected to enter the new marketing season with the largest available supply in recent years. At the same time, access to deep-water ports will remain the key factor determining domestic prices. This was reported by analysts at the PUSK agricultural cooperative, established within the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).

“As of the end of July, Ukraine still has nearly 5 mln tons of carryover corn stocks. Even if another 1 mln tons are exported before the new season begins, about 4 mln tons will remain on the domestic market. Under a realistic scenario, the new crop is expected to reach 34–35 mln tons, bringing total supply to 38–39 mln tons. That would be the highest level since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion,” the analysts said.

Meanwhile, global market fundamentals are moving in the opposite direction and could otherwise support higher prices for Ukrainian exporters. “Corn crop conditions in France have continued to deteriorate, with only 38% of fields now rated good or excellent. In addition, the U.S. corn harvest is expected to decline by nearly 30 mln tons. Under these conditions, global corn prices should be higher than last year,” the experts noted. However, Ukraine’s limited export capacity due to the blockade of deep-water ports may prevent producers from benefiting from stronger world prices.

“Even if the Danube ports were dedicated exclusively to corn exports, it would take about 11 months to ship such volumes, assuming no other crops were exported. If deep-water ports remain closed, calculations indicate that CPT corn prices could fall to $140–150 per ton, or even lower under a negative scenario. A similar situation occurred in 2023, when corn prices dropped from around $180 to $90 per ton after the Black Sea Grain Initiative ended,” the analysts recalled.

According to PUSK, producers planning to market corn between October and December should already consider forward contracts. “If deep-water ports reopen, the cost of locking in prices early could amount to only a few dollars per ton. However, if the ports remain closed, prices could decline by $50–70 per ton, creating a significant financial risk for corn producers,” the analysts concluded.

Tags: corn, export, prices, Ukraine