Conab forecasts a likely drop in soybean and corn exports from Brazil

According to Conab, international soybean sales are expected to decline in the coming months due to lower prices and export premiums. In May, Brazilian soybean exports reached 15.59 mln tonnes, up from 14.34 mln tonnes in the previous month and 10.64 mln tonnes in the same period of 2022.

However, despite this increase, producers are likely to prefer to hold on to soybeans until better times, namely the second half of the year, when prices are expected to rise. This recent increase in exports is largely due to anticipated sales and preparations for the new harvest.

Conab also reports that China, which is importing record volumes of soybeans from Brazil, has made it more difficult to inspect shipments arriving in the country. This has led to longer clearance times and slower and more expensive movement of goods into China, which could delay trade with the Asian country.

As for corn, exports have already shown a slight decline, amounting to 0.38 million tons in May compared to 0.47 million tons in April. The decline was driven by lower premiums and prices, which had a significant impact on overseas sales.

Tomé Gut, Head of Operational Logistics at Conab, notes that the excellent conditions for this year’s Brazilian harvest, associated with the start of the US crop, are putting pressure on prices in Chicago due to forecasts of record global supply. However, the expected drought in the U.S. in the coming days has led to higher prices due to concerns about weather conditions.

Tags: corn, export, Brazil, soybean