Completion of rapeseed sowing in Canada under favorable conditions accelerated the fall in rapeseed prices on exchanges and in Ukraine

Despite the cool and rainy weather in Canada, as of June 10, farmers have almost completed sowing of rapeseed, which immediately led to a sharp drop in prices on the stock exchange, as there are still large stocks of unsold old crop, and the prospects for the new harvest remain optimistic.

On the Winnipeg Stock Exchange on Friday, July rapeseed futures fell 3.6% to 605 CAD/t or $440/t, showing a 10% drop over the month to a three-month low, and November futures fell 2.5% to 624.6 CAD/t or $455/t (-9% over the month). Funds began to transfer their positions to the November contract, as the demand for rapeseed is falling amid the approaching harvest in the EU and lower prices for rapeseed and soybean oil.

Sowing of soybeans in the United States is almost complete, and the condition of soybean crops is estimated at 70% as good and excellent against 54% last year, which caused the decline in November soybean futures in Chicago yesterday by 1.8% and increases the pressure on the quotes of canola.

On the MATIF exchange in Paris, the August futures for rapeseed yesterday fell by 2.4% to 457 €/t or 490 $/t (-2.6% for the week, -4.8% for the month), following the decline in prices for rapeseed.

Since the beginning of 2023/24 MG as of June 9, the EU imported 5.2 million tons of rapeseed, which is 27% less than the corresponding figure for 2022/23 MG, but there is a slight increase in supplies from Canada.

Ukraine has started harvesting early grains, and rapeseed will be harvested at the end of June, but the yield forecasts remain significantly lower than last year. In their June report, MARS experts forecast Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest at nearly 4 million tons, down 12% from last year but up 16% from the 5-year average. The area is estimated at 1.5 million hectares, which is 16% more than the 5-year average.

Export prices for rapeseed of the new harvest decreased for the week by 10-15 $/t to 400-420 $/t or 17500-18500 UAH/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea, but higher forward prices a few weeks ago will restrain sales from farmers. Prices for rapeseed with delivery to the EU countries are offered at 460-465 €/t, but with delivery in October-November, so Ukrainian farmers are in no hurry to contract volumes.

Rains in the major growing regions of canola in Canada and Australia improve crop prospects and will put significant pressure on the quotes in the coming weeks.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, EU, prices, Canada, rapeseed