Competition between Russian and Ukrainian wheat intensifies in the Black Sea region
The physical wheat market remains subdued: export prices in Ukraine have hardly changed in a week, and buyers remain limited in activity. This was reported by analysts at Spike Brokers.
Thus, export prices on the CPT Odesa basis were recorded within the following limits:
- 11.5% protein — $219-218/t (-$1);
- feed — $215-215/t ($0).
Demand is concentrated mainly from Egypt (395 thousand tons), Spain (120 thousand tons) and Italy (36 thousand tons). Additional supplies are directed to Djibouti, Algeria and certain niche markets, forming a concentrated demand structure.
At the same time, competition in the Black Sea region is a key pressure factor — Russian wheat is actively offered on the market, forcing Ukrainian exporters to maintain a price discount. Amid expectations of a new harvest, importers are taking a wait-and-see approach, further constraining trade.
Meanwhile, FOB indications are held at $233-236/t, reflecting limited buyer activity.
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