China sharply cuts corn consumption forecast amid shift to alternative feeds

China has significantly lowered its corn feed consumption forecast amid increased use of alternative feed ingredients. According to the October China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report, corn consumption for feed purposes in MY 2026/27 is projected at 200.5 mln tons, down from 209.6 mln tons in the September forecast. This represents a downward revision of 9.1 mln tons, Fastmarkets reports.

Similar adjustments were made to estimates for the current MY 2025/26. The corn feed consumption forecast was reduced by 9.4 mln tons to 201.5 mln tons. The main reason was increased use of corn substitutes in feed production. Meanwhile, industrial corn consumption was raised by 4 mln tons to 85 mln tons, supported by a recovery in starch plant operating rates.

In MY 2026/27, industrial corn consumption is also expected to increase to 85.5 mln tons, compared with the previous estimate of 81.2 mln tons. However, this increase will not be sufficient to offset weaker feed demand. China’s total corn consumption forecast has been lowered from 311.65 mln tons to 306.85 mln tons, a reduction of 4.8 mln tons.

Despite the lower consumption outlook, production and import forecasts remain unchanged. China is expected to harvest 306 mln tons of corn and import another 6 mln tons in MY 2026/27. Meanwhile, the projected increase in corn stocks has been sharply raised from 340 thsd tons to 5.14 mln tons, indicating a looser domestic supply-demand balance.

According to Chinese analysts, favorable weather conditions have supported crop development, while increased new-crop supplies are adding pressure on prices. However, strong demand from the livestock sector, recovering starch production, government reserve purchases, and higher international corn prices could support domestic quotations. For global exporters, including Ukraine, the downward revision to China’s consumption forecast is an important market signal, although the country has not changed its import plans for now.

Tags: China, corn, imports, compound feed