China plans to cut soybean meal use, raising concerns for Brazilian exports

China has announced plans to reduce the use of soybean meal in pig feed, a move that could significantly impact global soybean markets and Brazil’s export outlook. In 2025, the country imported more than 70 million tonnes of soybeans, maintaining its position as the world’s largest buyer and Brazil’s key export destination.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, soybean imports are projected to decline by 6.1% in 2026. In the longer term, demand could fall by up to 30% by 2030 as new feed technologies are adopted and reliance on soybean meal is reduced.

China is actively investing in fermentation-based products and alternative protein sources, including insects, to partially replace soybean meal in animal feed. These efforts are aimed at improving pork quality while also strengthening the country’s food self-sufficiency.

For Brazil, the shift poses a significant challenge, as the country remains heavily dependent on soybean exports. A decline in Chinese demand could create price volatility and force exporters to explore new markets or adjust their trade strategies.

Analysts suggest that diversifying soybean use — particularly by expanding domestic processing and biodiesel production — could help offset the impact of weaker export demand and improve the sector’s resilience to global market changes.

Tags: China, Brazil, soybean meal