China plans to cut soybean imports by a quarter by 2035

China intends to significantly reduce its reliance on imported soybeans over the next decade. The forecast was issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China. According to the outlook, soybean imports are expected to fall to 82.55 million tonnes by 2035 as part of a broader push to strengthen food self-sufficiency.

According to Reuters, this represents a decline of about 26% compared with the 2025 peak of 111.83 million tonnes. At the same time, Beijing plans to reduce overall grain imports from 140.56 million tonnes to 115 million tonnes by 2035.

China also expects domestic grain production to increase. Output is projected to rise to 753 million tonnes, up from 715 million tonnes last year. Authorities attribute this to higher yields, improved farming technology, and more efficient land use.

However, analysts urge caution regarding these projections. China has previously set similar targets that were not fully achieved. For example, in 2022 it was forecast that soybean production would reach 23 million tonnes by 2025, but data from the United States Department of Agriculture shows output has remained below 21 million tonnes.

Experts say China’s long-term strategy could reshape global soybean markets. For more than two decades, Chinese demand has been the main driver of global soybean trade, especially in animal feed production. The country has the world’s largest pig population, and its agricultural sector depends heavily on protein-rich feed.

The biggest impact is expected on major exporters, particularly Brazil, which now supplies more than 40% of global soybean exports, overtaking the United States as the main supplier to China. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the FAO, China’s import growth is already slowing, signaling a potential reshaping of global supply chains over the next decade.

Tags: China, soybean, imports