China maintains corn consumption forecast for MY 2026/27

China’s Agricultural Outlook Committee (CAOC), in its July CASDE report, left its MY 2026/27 forecast for feed corn consumption unchanged at 209.6 mln tons. Total corn consumption also remained at 311.65 mln tons, while production was maintained at 306 mln tons and imports at 6 mln tons.

According to the CAOC, weather conditions across China’s main corn-growing regions remain generally favorable. In the northeast, temperatures and soil moisture levels are meeting crop requirements, while in North China, ample sunshine and warm weather are supporting crop development. Forecast rainfall is expected to replenish soil moisture reserves, although low-lying areas may face a risk of excessive moisture.

Domestic corn demand in China remains subdued. The market continues to be influenced by active sales from state reserves, partial substitution of corn with wheat, sorghum, and barley in feed rations, as well as seasonal shutdowns at some corn processing facilities. As a result, domestic corn prices have remained stable or edged slightly lower.

On the global market, traders remain focused on weather risks in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly for the upcoming corn crop in the United States and Europe. At the same time, lower crude oil prices continue to weigh on international corn prices, keeping them at relatively low levels.

The unchanged CASDE outlook indicates that China currently sees no reason to revise its corn balance sheet. If weather conditions in key producing countries remain favorable, global grain supplies are likely to stay ample, limiting the potential for a significant rise in corn prices.

Tags: China, corn