China has stepped up its purchases of US soybeans

China has significantly accelerated purchases of US soybeans under its trade agreement with the United States, which includes commitments to buy up to 25 mln tons annually. According to StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman, China could purchase 50–60% of this volume by the planned meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in late September.

Earlier expectations suggested that Chinese purchases of US soybeans would reach around 15 mln tons only by the end of the year, but the actual pace has been faster. According to Suderman, China is prepared to pay a premium for US soybeans, as fulfilling its agricultural commitments could become an important factor in broader trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

Stronger Chinese demand could reshape global soybean trade flows. If a larger share of US supplies is shipped to China, other importers may have to increase purchases from Brazil. The country is already diversifying its export destinations: Brazilian soybean exports increased by more than 8% in the first half of 2026, while China’s share fell to 69% from 75% a year earlier.

The increase in purchases comes amid a relatively tight US soybean balance. USDA raised its estimate of planted area in August but also increased its domestic crush forecast. As a result, projected ending stocks increased only marginally. StoneX estimates that continued aggressive Chinese buying could further tighten available supplies and increase upside price risks.

In addition to soybeans, China has shown interest in US corn and wheat this summer, although no major purchases have yet materialized. StoneX does not rule out additional agricultural purchases ahead of the September summit. Large Chinese purchases of corn or wheat could provide further support to global grain prices.

Tags: USA, China, soybean