China cuts soybean production forecast by 590 thsd tons but keeps import outlook unchanged

China has lowered its soybean production forecast for MY 2026/27 due to reduced planted area and lower-than-expected yields. According to the October China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report, soybean production is now projected at 20.36 mln tons, down from 20.95 mln tons in September. This represents a downward revision of 590 thsd tons, Fastmarkets reports.

The forecast harvested soybean area was reduced from 10.19 mln ha to 10.11 mln ha, while the average yield estimate was lowered from 2.055 to 2.013 t/ha. Despite weaker production prospects, China’s soybean harvest is still expected to exceed 20 mln tons. Meanwhile, new-crop soybeans are entering the market in large volumes across northeastern producing regions, with initial purchase prices noticeably higher than a year earlier.

Despite the reduction in domestic production, China’s soybean import forecast for MY 2026/27 remains unchanged at 95.5 mln tons. Expected crushing volumes are also maintained at 94 mln tons, while total consumption is projected at 113.96 mln tons. However, the forecast increase in soybean stocks has been cut by 590 thsd tons to 1.75 mln tons. For comparison, soybean imports in MY 2025/26 are estimated at 108 mln tons, with crushing at 101.5 mln tons.

Analysts note that domestic soybean prices are supported by the smaller harvest, rising production costs, and higher international oilseed prices. According to China’s Agriculture Outlook Committee, these factors could keep domestic soybean purchase prices elevated for some time.

Meanwhile, China’s soybean oil production forecast for MY 2026/27 remains unchanged at 17.17 mln tons. Total edible vegetable oil production is projected at 31.43 mln tons, imports at 7.7 mln tons, and consumption at 37.89 mln tons. Thus, the reduction in domestic soybean output has not yet affected import and crushing forecasts, but has lowered the expected stock build and strengthened price support in the domestic market.

Tags: China, soybean, imports