China braces for new record wheat harvest – COFCO

China expects another bumper wheat harvest this year thanks to favorable weather, the head of COFCO International said on Thursday, with rising domestic supplies likely to reduce the need for imports.

China’s winter wheat, which is typically planted in October and harvested around June, accounts for 90% of annual wheat production.

“Supply and demand will remain loose in 2025-26, with the surplus expected to increase,” Duan Chen, associate hedging manager at COFCO International, said at a conference.

Duan said winter wheat acreage remains stable and a good harvest is expected under normal weather. She did not provide a production estimate.

China, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, has cut purchases this year after domestic production jumped to an all-time high of 140.1 million tonnes in 2024, up 2.6% from a year earlier.

Higher supplies next year could further squeeze China’s import demand, which fell 7.4% to 11.18 million tonnes last year, adding to pressure on benchmark Chicago wheat prices.ZW1!.

In addition to rising production, stagnant consumption has led to a glut of wheat supplies, which COFCO International forecasts will increase in the 2025/26 crop year, she said.

Duan said the milling industry’s demand for flour and food ingredients is stagnating due to demographic changes.

“The wheat surplus will be absorbed by the feed industry and government procurement,” she said.

A Reuters tally in February showed that the world’s largest wheat buyer has already deferred imports of up to 600,000 tonnes, mostly from Australia.

Chinese importers told Reuters at a conference that they had become more cautious with their purchases due to uncertainty surrounding the escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing.

“China’s demand for wheat, barley and sorghum remains relatively weak at present, but there is hope for a recovery in the second quarter,” an Australian wheat and sorghum exporter said.

China retaliated this week in response to the new U.S. tariffs, announcing higher duties on about $21 billion worth of farm products.