Cereals prices will not rise in the medium term
Global cereals prices declined due to a large supply of grain. Further price declines will be slowed by poorer wheat harvests in Canada and Australia, as well as corn in Brazil next year.
This is stated in the National Bank of Ukraine’s financial stability report for December 2023.
However, food prices will not rise in the medium term due to faster supply growth than demand.
In general, lower global commodity prices have a negative impact on Ukrainian exports, primarily agricultural products. At the same time, logistical constraints remain the main problem for Ukrainian exporters. After Russia suspended the grain corridor, Ukraine and its partners were able to organize a transportation route through the Black Sea. However, Ukrainian infrastructure on the sea and the Danube is under constant air strikes. Restrictions on the export of certain agricultural products to neighboring countries are an additional constraint. Ukraine reserves the right to apply to the World Trade Organization to resolve trade disputes. Another problem is the blocking of truck traffic from Ukraine by protesters in Poland and Slovakia.
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