CBOT wheat ends mixed as traders await US export data and monitor Black Sea risks

Wheat futures ended mixed on Wednesday, July 29, with the Chicago and Kansas markets edging lower while Minneapolis spring wheat posted gains. September CBOT soft red winter (SRW) wheat settled at $242.78/mt, down 0.27%, while Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat slipped to $266.57/mt. In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat rose to $259.04/mt. Traders remained cautious ahead of the USDA’s weekly export sales report and continued to assess supply developments in key exporting countries.

September CBOT SRW wheat closed at $6.60¾/bu, down 1¾ cents, while the December contract lost 2 cents to $6.77¾/bu. Kansas City September HRW wheat eased ¾ cent to $7.25½/bu, with December futures also finishing lower. Minneapolis spring wheat outperformed the other classes, with September futures gaining 2½ cents to $7.05/bu and December adding 3 cents to $7.28¼/bu.

Market participants are looking to Thursday’s USDA export sales report for fresh demand signals. A Reuters survey estimates US new-crop wheat export sales for the week ended July 23 at 200,000–500,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, shipping activity in the Black Sea remains constrained as Ukraine and Russia continue exchanging strikes on ports and inland logistics infrastructure, adding uncertainty to regional grain exports.

In Russia, consultancy Rusagrotrans lowered its July wheat export estimate to 1.9 million tons, with 1.6 million tons shipped between July 1 and July 27. August exports are projected at 3.0–3.5 million tons. At the same time, USDA raised its forecast for Argentina’s 2026/27 wheat crop to 21.6 million tons, up 600,000 tons from its April estimate, and increased the country’s wheat export forecast to 15.5 million tons. Pakistan also announced plans to import 1 million tons of wheat through the state-run Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP).

Corn futures closed sharply lower across all nearby contracts. September corn fell 9½ cents to $4.49/bu, while December declined 8¾ cents to $4.71¾/bu. Traders expect USDA to report 300,000–600,000 tons of old-crop U.S. corn sales and 0.5–1.0 million tons of new-crop sales for the latest reporting week. South Korea purchased 69,000 tons of U.S. corn in an overnight tender, while weather forecasts from LSEG indicate warmer and wetter conditions in southern Brazil over the next two weeks, potentially delaying the harvest of the country’s second corn crop. Argentina, meanwhile, reported a record 71.5-million-ton corn harvest, with harvesting 75% complete.

Soybean futures also ended lower, pressured by expectations of weaker export demand. August soybeans fell 34 cents to $11.78/bu, September lost 28¾ cents to $11.76/bu, and November dropped 27¼ cents to $11.92¾/bu. Traders expect USDA to report net cancellations of 200,000–300,000 tons of old-crop soybean sales, while new-crop sales are forecast at 700,000–1.0 million tons. Despite the near-term weakness, analysts expect China’s soybean imports to remain above 10 million tons per month in both July and August, supported by strong feed demand from the country’s livestock and poultry sectors. European grain markets also weakened, with September milling wheat on MATIF falling to €226.50/mt, while Black Sea FOB wheat prices declined further, including Ukraine at $224/mt and Russia at $230–232/mt.

Tags: corn, prices, soybean, wheat