Canadian 2026/27 oilseed production forecast to fall 4%

The forecast was based on Statistics Canada’s survey-based seeding intentions data for 2026/27 and an assumption that yields of canola and sunflowerseed would fall to their three-year average, while soyabean yields would increase to their three-year average, the 23 April report said.

Despite a 1% increase in canola planted area compared to the previous year, a return to average canola yields for canola was the main reason for the forecast decline in total oilseed production.

Canola output in 2026/27 was forecast to decline from 20.8M tonnes the previous year to 20.1M tonnes, while soyabean production in 2026/27 was expected to increase from 6,79M tonnes to 7.38M tonnes from a planted area of 2.38M ha, up 1.8% from the previous year.

Sunflowerseed is not a major oilseed in Canada and production is expected to decline by 13% from 69,000 tonnes in 2025/26 to 60,000 tonnes, according to the report

Although canola seed exports were expected to decline by 14% in 2026/27 due to increased domestic processing of canola seed as crushing capacity rose from 13.56M tonnes in 2025 to 14.8M tonnes by the end of 2026, total seed exports were forecast to increase by 7% as a result of higher soyabean exports led by high demand for biofuel feedstocks in the USA.

Seed imports remained small due to Canada’s limited capacity for soyabean and sunflowerseed processing, and its large domestic production of canola seed, the USDA’s ‘Canada – Oilseeds and Products Annual’ said.

China is an important market for Canada’s canola complex, according to the report.

In 2023, the last “normal” year of exports for Canada’s canola complex, Canada exported 65% of its canola seed volume, 34% of canola meal, and 3.7% of canola oil, to China, for a combined value of US$3.7bn.

However, Canada’s canola sector has had a “tumultuous” relationship with China, with Beijing announcing a 100% tariff rate on Canadian canola oil and meal (along with other commodities) with immediate effect, the report said.

In August 2025, China announced preliminary tariffs of 75.8% on canola seed.

On 27 February, China announced that it would suspend all agricultural tariffs on Canadian canola meal from 1 March until the end of 2026.

The following day, Beijing announced it would lower its anti-dumping tariff on Canadian canola seed from 75.8% to 5.9%.

Canola oil continued to be subject to a 100% tariff, the report said.

Tags: canola, Oilseed, Canada