Canada’s Wheat Production to Drop 10% in MY 2026/27

Production of major grains in Canada — including wheat, corn, barley, and oats — is projected to decline by about 6% in the MY 2026/27, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. The decrease is mainly attributed to expected lower yields.

Wheat production (including durum) is forecast at 36.2 million tonnes, down 10% from the previous season. This reflects a return to the three-year average yield after reaching record highs in 2025/26, when output rose by 11% year-on-year to 39.9 million tonnes.

A slight reduction in planted area is also anticipated. According to FAS, farmers are shifting toward more profitable crops, such as soybeans in Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, as well as barley and canola in Saskatchewan and Alberta. This trend is driven by large wheat stocks and relatively lower wheat prices compared to alternative crops.

Amid a stronger Canadian dollar and reduced supply due to smaller planted areas, Canadian wheat exports are expected to fall by 4% to 28.5 million tonnes in MY 2026/27. Barley production is also projected to decline by 10%, following record output in the previous season.

In contrast, corn production is expected to increase by nearly 6% to 15.7 million tonnes, supported by expanded planting areas and improved soil moisture conditions. In Ontario, which accounts for about 64% of Canada’s corn production, weather conditions have improved significantly due to above-average rainfall.

Higher domestic corn supply is expected to boost consumption by 6% to 15.5 million tonnes, driven by feed demand and industrial use. At the same time, corn imports into Canada are projected to decrease by 8% to around 1.7 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year.