Canada’s record wheat harvest this season adds pressure on global prices

Canada is experiencing a record wheat harvest this season, putting additional pressure on global wheat prices. In December, Statistics Canada raised its estimate for wheat production in the MY 2025/26 (August 2025–July 2026) by 3.4 million tonnes, to a record 40 million tonnes (+4.1 million tonnes compared to 2024/25). The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture (AAFC), in its January report, adjusted the domestic consumption forecast downward to 8.1 million tonnes (-0.2 million tonnes compared to the previous projection; +0.1 million tonnes versus 2024/25), while raising the export forecast for Canadian wheat to 28.6 million tonnes (+0.2 million tonnes compared to 2024/25), notably higher than the USDA’s January estimate of 28 million tonnes.

Of the projected 28.6 million tonnes, the Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of January 11, exporters had already shipped about 12.6 million tonnes of wheat since August (+8% compared to the same period last year).

A significant share of Canada’s soft wheat exports goes to countries that are key markets for Black Sea exporters. Nevertheless, the increase in Canadian wheat supply may put downward pressure on CIF prices and affect markets of interest to Black Sea suppliers. For instance, according to the Grain Commission, between August and November, Canada delivered 1.1 million tonnes to China (nearly five times higher than the previous marketing year) and 902.8 thousand tonnes to Bangladesh (almost eight times higher).

Looking ahead to the next season, AAFC expects wheat production to decrease to 35 million tonnes (-5 million tonnes versus 2025/26). However, exports are expected to remain high at 28.5 million tonnes (-0.1 million tonnes), meaning Canadian suppliers will continue to compete in overlapping markets.

Tags: crop forecast, prices, Canada, wheat