Canada’s oat production may fall 23% amid reduced acreage and weather challenges

Canada’s oat production could decline by 23% in 2026 compared with the previous year, falling to 3.03 mln tons from 3.92 mln tons in 2025. According to Statistics Canada, the projected harvest would also be 16% below the five-year average. The main factors behind the decline are reduced planting areas, dry conditions early in the growing season and excessive rainfall during harvesting.

This year, Canada’s oat planting area totaled approximately 1.03 mln ha, down 15% from 2025 and 21% below the five-year average. Farmers reduced oat acreage due to substantial carryover stocks from the previous harvest and higher profitability of alternative crops, particularly rapeseed (canola). Meanwhile, heavy rains in Saskatchewan and Manitoba in August disrupted harvesting and raised concerns about grain quality deterioration.

Excessive moisture during harvesting can reduce grain test weights, cause discoloration and trigger sprouting, limiting the suitability of oats for food production and increasing the share downgraded to feed grade. The situation is further complicated by declining inventories, which stood at 577 thsd tons as of July 31, compared with 1.91 mln tons at the end of March and 2.66 mln tons at the end of December 2025. A smaller harvest this season could further tighten supplies in domestic and export markets.

Oat prices have started rising amid concerns over shrinking supplies. In late September, March 2027 oat futures reached new contract highs, gaining nearly 30% from their late-June lows. The situation is particularly important for the US, as Canada accounts for more than 90% of American oat imports and approximately two-thirds of domestic oat consumption. Deteriorating Canadian grain quality could create additional challenges for US food manufacturers.

Weather-related problems are also affecting the outlook for durum wheat production, with Canada’s harvest forecast at 6.42 mln tons, down 12% from last year. However, weather conditions have recently improved, allowing farmers to accelerate grain harvesting. Nevertheless, the full impact of drought and excessive rainfall on crop yields and quality remains uncertain, potentially supporting elevated prices for oats and other grains.

Tags: weather conditions, Canada, sown area, oats