Canada: Weather to affect seeding plans more than tariffs

Statistics Canada has released its first seeding forecast of the year, and the most common question seemed to be, “how will the tariff war impact the seeded area estimates?”

The survey of farmers’ planting intentions occurred before the tariff crisis occurred, and while they will likely affect the seeded area to some extent, they will only be one of many factors that will go into planting decisions this spring.

The report indicated that barley, canola and flax area will drop while the wheat, oat and flax area increases.

Canola area is expected to drop by 1.7 per cent to 21.6 million acres, while spring wheat area will increase by 2.5 per cent to 19.4 million acres.

Durum area was expected to remain unchanged at 6.4 million acres this year, while barley area is expected to be down by two per cent to 6.28 million acres.

Oat area is expected to increase by 2.7 per cent to three million acres.

In general, the changes to cropped area were relatively minor and within trade expectations.

One of the factors that hasn’t been talked about is the impact that weather may have on planting area adjustments this spring.

Winter precipitation across the Prairies has been above normal in the western Prairies, but the eastern Prairies have received below normal precipitation.

The weather over the past three months has been even drier across the Prairies with Manitoba and Saskatchewan reporting below normal snowfall.

The driest areas are located in southern Manitoba, which has received less than 40 per cent of normal precipitation since the beginning of the new year.

Southeastern Saskatchewan has received less than 60 per cent of normal precipitation while the rest of the province is reporting less than 85 per cent of normal.

The exception is west-central and parts of central Saskatchewan, which have received normal precipitation.

Alberta has received above average precipitation over the past three months with the exception of the Peace River region, which has reported less than 85 per cent of normal precipitation.

The British Columbia Peace has received less than 40 per cent of normal precipitation.

The dry weather this winter is unlikely to change planting intentions, but a continuation of the dryness through the spring season may alter farmers plans.

The forecast is currently indicating that the weather in Western Canada will remain intact through early April. April showers will certainly be needed in order to get crops established in the eastern Prairies this year. This may cause small seeded crops (especially oilseed) to be reduced in favour of cereal crops.

A La Nina advisory was issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the U.S. this week, although an ENSO neutral state is expected through most of the spring and summer. The neutral condition favours a “normal” scenario for spring and summer weather.

Although the weather situation is dry in the Prairies, there is no indication that this weather pattern will persist. Even if La Nina was to develop this summer, the impact on Prairie precipitation is minimal.

Changes to the areas planted to crops this spring are likely to be minor, despite the weather and tariff situation. Certainly production prospects, as in any year, are going to be reliant on the moisture we receive during the next five months.

Tags: tariff, durum, flax, barley, canola, weather, Canada, wheat, forecast, precipitation, oat