Canada: Weather models predict hot summer

It is time for our monthly look back at how the weather shaped up across the Prairies and then our look ahead to see what kind of weather the different long-range forecasts or predictions are calling for this summer.

Overall, it was a warmer than average April across Alberta with Manitoba and Saskatchewan seeing near average temperatures.

The northern parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba’s agricultural regions reported below average temperatures. Precipitation was below average across all the major reporting stations in all three Prairie provinces.

If we look back at the forecasts for the month, we will give the win to the CanSIPS model with its call of above average temperatures in April in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with Manitoba seeing below average temperatures along with below average precipitation.

Now on to the spring and summer forecasts, starting off as usual with our two almanacs.

The Old Farmers Almanac is calling for slightly above average temperatures in both May and June followed by near average temperatures in July and below average in August.

Its precipitation forecast is calling for above average amounts in May, near average in June and above average in July and August.

The Canadian Farmers Almanac appears to be calling for average temperatures and above average precipitation in May followed by near to above average temperatures and precipitation in June.

Its July forecast seems to be leaning toward hot and dry. The last month of the summer, according to the publication, will see near to above average temperatures with near average precipitation.

Moving on to the different weather models, NOAA’s forecast looks to be calling for near average temperatures across the eastern Prairies in May and June, which then transitions to above average temperatures in July and August.

The western Prairies are forecasted to see above average temperatures from May right through to August.

NOAA’s precipitation forecast is for below average amounts in all four months.

Looking at the CFS model, it is calling for above average temperatures from May right through to August.

The precipitation forecast is for below average amounts in Manitoba in May with near average amounts elsewhere. June will see above average amounts in Alberta and near average amounts in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

July is predicted to be dry right across the Prairies, with August coming in around average.

Next up is last month’s winner, the CanSIPS model. It is calling for well above average temperatures in May, with near to above average temperatures in June, July and August.

Its precipitation forecast is for below average amounts for all four months.

Last on our list of computer models is the ECMWF, which is also predicting above average temperatures and near to below average precipitation from May to August.

Last is my take on all of this.

I do not remember the last time all the long-range models were in agreement. With all of them calling for above average temperatures and below average precipitation, I just can’t see going against them.

Let’s hope they are wrong, at least on the precipitation side of things.

Author: Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA in geography, specializing in climatology, from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man.

Tags: NOAA, weather, forecast, precipitation, temperatures