Canada: Next two months may be cold, snowy

Another month has come and gone, and it won’t be long until we say goodbye to 2025.

That means it is time for our monthly weather review and a look ahead to see what the next couple of months might have in store for us.

November was a warm month right across the Prairies with temperatures ranging between 1.6 C above average in Edmonton to 3.8 C above average in Winnipeg.

The warm spot was Calgary with an actual mean monthly temperature of -0.4 C, with the cold spot going to Peace River, Alta., at -5.4 C.

Looking at precipitation for the month, Manitoba, eastern Saskatchewan and northwestern Alberta saw a dry month. The driest location was Brandon with only 2.7 millimetres of water equivalent precipitation reported. The wet spot was Calgary, which reported 16.7 mm, about four mm above the long-term average.

Looking back at the weather forecasts or predictions, both the Old Farmers Almanac and CanSIPS model predicted a warmer than average start to the winter, but neither of these forecasts got the precipitation forecast correct. The Old Farmers Almanac called for above average amounts and the Canadian CanSIPS models called for near average amounts.

We’ll now look at the latest predictions and model runs, and as usual, we’ll start off with the almanacs.

The Old Farmers Almanac is calling for a warmer than average December and January with above average precipitation.

The Farmers Almanac (Canadian Edition), which unfortunately will not longer be with as after next year, is calling for cold and snowy over the next couple of months with clipper systems and a late January blizzard.

Next up are the weather models.

The CFS model is calling for a brief warm-up to start December with colder than average temperatures moving in during the second half of the month.

These cold temperatures are then forecasted to moderate as we move into January, with most locations expected to see near to slightly above average temperatures.

Its precipitation forecasts are calling for near average amounts in both months with western Alberta having the greatest chance of seeing above average amounts.

Looking at the CanSIPS model, it is calling for near to slightly below average temperatures across the eastern Prairies in December, with western regions seeing above average values. January is forecasted to be cold, with all areas expected to see well below average temperatures.

Precipitation is forecasted to be near average right across the Prairies in both months.

The European model, or ECMWF, is calling for near average temperatures over the next two months with above average precipitation.

NOAA is also calling for above average precipitation over the next two months but is predicting below average temperatures.

Lastly is my two cents.

I think we are going to see near average temperatures and precipitation in December followed by below average temperatures and above average precipitation in January.

Now, as usual, we must sit back and see what Mother Nature will throw at us.

Author: Daniel Bezte

Tags: cold, snowy, weather, forecast, precipitation, temperatures, average