Canada Farmers Expected to Produce More Wheat, Soybeans But Less Canola This Year

In parts of the Canadian prairies, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures have worsened crop conditions even as some areas have seen an improvement, Statistics Canada said Monday.

Provincial reports point indicate conditions in Alberta decreased through August, with 43% of the total crop rates as being in good to excellent conditions compared with 51% at the end of the previous month and below the five-year average, the data agency said. Reports suggest that some areas of Saskatchewan have been affected by hot and dry conditions, particularly in the south of the province, though precipitation in Manitoba remains above average and temperatures have been in line with what is considered normal.

To the east, crops in Ontario and Quebec appear to be progressing well, though some areas of Ontario may have been impacted by excess moisture and high temperatures, the agency said. The Atlantic provinces have experienced warmer weather and less rainfall than average since the beginning of the growing season.

Nationally, wheat production is forecast to increase 4.1% from last year to about 34.4 million metric tons in 2024 thanks to a rise in yields. The harvested area is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 26.0 million acres.

The rise in wheat output is largely tied to durum wheat, with the harvested area expected to increase 5.3% to 6.2 million acres and yields projected to jump by just over 40%. Spring wheat production is forecast to fall 1.0% to 25.3 million tons,

Canola production in the country is projected to drop by 1.1% to 19.0 million tons, with yields set to fall 0.8%% to 38.4 bushels an acre. The harvested area is expected to edge down 0.4% to 21.8 million acres, Statistics Canada said.

National soybean output is estimated to increase 3.1% on-year to 7.2 million tons, with yields estimated to rise by 1.1% to 46.4 bushels an acre while the harvested area is anticipated to increase 2.0% to 5.7 million acres.

Corn for grain production is expected to fall 1.6% to 15.2 million tons, as the harvest area are projected to shrink 5.2% to 3.6 million acres but the yield will expand 3.7% to 167.8 bushels an acre.

Final survey-based production estimates for 2024 are scheduled to be released Dec. 5.

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