Brazil’s soybean crop forecast for MY 2023/24 is downgraded due to a sharp decline in average yields

Brazil’s soybean production for the 2023/2024 season will be 147.57 million metric tons, down from the 147.96 million metric tons previously forecast, according to a new estimate by consulting firm Datagro.

The consultancy cited lower soybean forecasts due to lower yields in the country and said production losses in the flood-hit state of Rio Grande do Sul, the second-largest producer after Mato Grosso, were partially offset by upward revisions to total planted area.

Datagro reported that Brazilian soybean farmers increased planted area for the 17th consecutive year. The consulting firm estimated planted area at 45.935 million hectares (2.471 million acres), up from 45.520 million hectares previously, a 2.8% increase from the 2022/23 season.

Despite the increase in projected soybean acreage, consultants lowered the expected average soybean yield from 3251 kg per hectare to 3213 kg per hectare.

This is 10.8% below the record of 3,602 kilograms achieved in the 2022/23 season, Datagro said. “Datagro also cut its second forecast for corn production to 90.515 million tons from 91.862 million tons, citing weather conditions. That’s 16.7% less than 2023’s 108.595 million tons harvested.

Tags: crop forecast, Brazil, soybean, sown area