Brazil’s corn production to edge lower in MY 2026/27

Brazil’s corn production in MY 2026/27 is forecast at 139 mln tons, slightly below 139.5 mln tons in the previous season. At the same time, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) raised its previous forecast for the new crop by 2%.

The main risks to production are high farming costs, particularly elevated fertilizer prices, as well as the potential impact of El Niño. Higher production costs could reduce the area planted with second-crop corn. In addition, El Niño could delay the soybean harvest, narrowing the optimal planting window for the following corn crop.

FAS forecasts Brazil’s corn planted area at 23 mln ha in MY 2026/27, compared with 22.8 mln ha in the previous season. Despite elevated production costs, corn remains profitable, while growing domestic demand from the ethanol industry continues to encourage farmers to prioritize the crop.

Brazil’s corn export forecast for MY 2026/27 was raised to 43 mln tons, up 1 mln tons from the expected level in the previous season. However, most of the crop will continue to be consumed domestically. Brazil’s corn consumption is projected to increase by 3% to 100 mln tons, mainly due to continued growth in the ethanol and feed industries.

Meanwhile, the outlook for Brazilian wheat is significantly weaker. Wheat production in MY 2026/27 is forecast at only 6.1 mln tons, down from 7.8 mln tons a year earlier, amid lower planted area and reduced investment. As a result, wheat imports are expected to rise from 6.6 mln tons to 7.2 mln tons, while domestic consumption is forecast at 12.5 mln tons.

Tags: Brazil, crop forecast, corn