Brazil’s corn production forecast holds at 134 mln tons, but risks are rising

Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop estimate remains unchanged at 134 million tonnes, although analysts highlight increasing weather-related risks. The main concern is declining rainfall in southern safrinha corn areas as the rainy season weakens.

Recent precipitation has mainly benefited western and northern regions, including western Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. Meanwhile, central and eastern areas remain drier, with above-normal temperatures adding stress to corn crops.

To maintain yield potential in central Brazil, additional rainfall will be needed through mid-May, and in later-planted areas, through early June. Without sufficient moisture, the risk of yield losses will increase.

Experts estimate that around 40% of the safrinha crop could face moisture stress, particularly in areas planted later than optimal. The most vulnerable regions include Paraná, São Paulo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso do Sul.

Under adverse conditions, potential losses could reach 4–6 million tonnes. Strong yields in northern regions may partly offset these losses, but the final outcome will depend on future weather developments.

Tags: crop forecast, corn, Brazil