Brazil to increase soybean exports to China to 85%

In the second half of 2025, Brazilian soybean exports are forecast at 43-44 million tons, significantly higher than the 34.7 million tons in the same period last year. Such growth will strengthen Brazil’s position as the world’s largest soybean exporter, analysts at Oil World (Germany) report. The main sales market will remain China, which continues to increase imports of Brazilian soybeans due to high demand and competitiveness of the product.

Since the beginning of 2025, Brazil has already exported 64.9 million tons of soybeans, which is only 0.8 million tons more than in January-June 2024. Of this volume, 75%, or 48.4 million tons, was sent to China, compared to 46.3 million tons (72%) a year earlier. In May, Brazil set a record by delivering the maximum volume of soybeans to China in a month. The share of exports to China is expected to increase to 85% in July-December, which could lead to a total supply of 64.95 million tons in the second half of the year.

The export growth is supported by the expansion of the sown area in Brazil. According to the forecasts of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture, soybean crops will reach 49.1 million hectares in the 2025/26 season, which is 3% more than in the previous year. In addition, soybean processing in the country will increase to 58 million tons due to demand for soybean meal for animal feed and soybean oil for biodiesel production, in particular due to the government’s B15 mandate, which will come into effect in 2025-2026.

Experts say that the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is provided by high quality, productivity and relatively low environmental impact. Despite the possible increase in competition from the United States due to recent trade agreements with China, Brazilian suppliers maintain a stable position thanks to a favorable price-quality ratio and a favorable exchange rate. China is expected to remain a key importer, absorbing the majority of global soybean exports.

Tags: China, Brazil, soybean