Brazil strengthens leadership in corn market thanks to record harvest

Brazil is poised to harvest one of the largest corn harvests in history in the 2024/25 season, thanks to favorable weather conditions and an expansion in the area sown. The high yields are expected to strengthen the country’s position in the global market, although low stocks could weigh on prices.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) estimates total corn production at 124.7 million metric tons, up 8.5% from last year. The second crop (safrinha) will account for the bulk, almost 80%, and is forecast at 98 million tons. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is more optimistic, with a forecast of 126 million tons, given that the area sown has increased to 22.3 million hectares, up 4% from the previous season.

Heavy rains early in the season have helped the crop, especially in the key region of Mato Grosso. Areas such as Sinop received up to 2,500 millimeters of rain, which has led to high yields. However, corn stocks in Brazil remain tight: according to CONAB, they fell to a historic low of 2 million tons in the 2023/24 season, but are expected to recover to 5.5 million tons by January. The USDA forecasts end-February stocks at 7.5 million tons, but they could fall to less than 3 million tons in 2024/25.

Tight supplies and strong demand in both domestic and international markets are likely to keep corn prices high. This could affect the competitiveness of U.S. exports and global market trends. The USDA also forecasts that Brazil’s corn production will increase to 130 million tons in the 2025/26 season due to further expansion of planted areas and stable demand, highlighting Brazil’s growing influence on the global corn market.

Tags: corn, Brazil