Black Sea barley: Prices seek balance amid weak demand and intense competition
UkrAgroConsult
Article author:
Black Sea barley prices declined sharply after start of the harvesting but are now showing signals of stabilization. Farmer selling remains limited as current prices do not meet farmers’ expectations. Rainfall in central Ukraine which slowing harvest progress and temporarily limiting market supplies can be considered as supportive factor.
On the demand side, North African buying remains subdued. Turkey is expected to cut barley imports dramatically following a strong domestic harvest, with imports likely to fall from 1.5 M mt in 2025/26 to only around 150 K mt this season.
Jordan’s latest tender for 60 K mt of feed barley was concluded at USD 252.6/mt CIF Aqaba, around USD 3/mt below the previous tender in early June, confirming cautious buyers’ behavior.
China remains the key uncertainty. Last July, China purchased 238 K mt of Ukrainian barley and became the main price driver. Traders continue searching for barley meeting Chinese quality specifications, but no significant deals have been reported so far.
Competition will remain intense. France is expected to harvest around 10.8 M mt of barley, about 1 M mt less y/y. Most likely, a larger share will likely be consumed domestically as feed demand increases due to weather concerns for corn.
Competition among Black Sea exporters will remain high in 2026/27. russia is forecast to harvest about 18.8 M mt, while Romania and Bulgaria are expected to produce crops close to last year’s levels. Exporters will be forces to expand sales into North Africa and the Mediterranean to offset weaker Turkish demand.
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