Barley prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from declining export demand

Demand for feed barley from Ukraine remains quite low, and importers are planning to increase purchases as they will soon begin harvesting their own crops.

In the MY 2025/26 (as of April 17), Ukraine reduced barley exports by 58% compared to the previous year, from 2.25 to 1.42 million tons, so by the end of the season it would be possible to ship another 0.8-1 million tons, which will be extremely difficult to do due to increased competition with European and Australian barley.

The closure of the Persian Gulf has reduced barley exports to traditional markets, and German and French barley are competing for North Africa (in Libya, Tunisia and Morocco).

Turkey expects barley production to increase from 5.1 million tons in 2025 to 7-8 million tons in 2026, as rainfall from October to February increased by 75% compared to the same period last year, so barley crops are mostly in good or excellent condition.

If in 2025, amid a decline in production, Turkey was forced to import almost 1.6 million tons of barley, then in 2026 imports will decrease significantly.

Export demand prices for feed barley in Ukraine remain at $217-220/t or UAH 10,800-10,900/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but prices for the new crop are only $207-210/t, so farmers should accelerate sales of the old crop.